Tuesday, September 18, 2018
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The North Korean threat to Japan

In early May, I was part of a fact-finding trip to Japan. What I learned from four days of discussions with senior government officials, legislators and scholars was invaluable. I’ve worked with Japanese counterparts for many years, especially on issues related to North Korea, but what I took away from this trip was Japan’s deep concern about the existential nuclear threat from North Korea and the need for the U.S., working with Japan, to more aggressively pursue a resolution of this issue. What also got my attention was Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pro-active contribution to peace in the region and the real progress made with Japan’s commitment to collective defense with its U.S. ally.

Japan appreciates President Trump’s decision to make the North Korea nuclear threat a priority national security issue. For years, Japan has been living with this existential nuclear threat from North Korea. Now, the U.S. is seized with the reality that North Korea will soon become an existential nuclear threat to the U.S. The progress North Koreacontinues to make with its missile programs, definitely to include the recent Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) successes, with a mobile, solid fuel missile capable of reaching Guam, has correctly focused attention on the need to get North Korea to halt these missile launches and return to negotiations, ideally before they launch an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S.

Japan is supportive of President Trump’s strategy of “putting all options on the table.” Their preference would be returning to negotiations and getting China to use more of its leverage with North Korea to accomplish this goal. China’s decision to cease importing coal from North Korea in 2017 was movement in that direction. Another card available to China is the crude oil they provide to North Korea. Any reduction in the amount of oil China provides to North Korea would have immediate impact on the North’s economy and its ability to sustain its very vulnerable infrastructure.

A return to negotiations, however, must not only focus on halting North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, it must also focus on our principal objective: Complete and verifiable denuclearization. There is a sense, and only a sense, that North Korea may believe that the progress they’ve made with its nuclear and missile programs has conditioned the international community to view a halt in these programs as the only realistic obtainable objective. Thus North Korea would retain its nuclear weapons and be accepted as a nuclear weapons state, albeit with a limited and capped nuclear weapons capability.

This would be a tragic mistake, not only for Japan and South Korea, but for the U.S. and those countries in the region.

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